BOND + CURRENCY MARKETS PRICING FED POLICY MISTAKE

Headline:
50 Basis Point Fed Funds Cut Challenged By Markets.

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Since The Federal Reserve Reduced Interest Rates By 50 Basis Points On 9.18.24…

An Odd Confluence Of Price Action Ripples Through The U.S. Bond + Currency Markets.

The U.S. Dollar Has Launched Higher + Long Rates Have Ramped…Resulting In Much 10 Year Bond Price Degradation[See Above]…

Resulting In A Bear Steepening Of The Yield Curve…

As The Majority Of Economic Data [Prior/Definitely Subsequent To 9.18.24]…

Remains Broadly Firm…Especially The Labor Market.

Plus…Forthcoming Q3 GDP Will Likely Print With A Strong “3” Handle.

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Nevertheless…U.S. Manufacturing Data Remains Weak…

But Despite Dramatic Media Headlines = Only Contributes 10.5% Of U.S. GDP.

Thus A Statistically Minimal Economic Impact.

So The U.S. Manufacturing Economy Is Not A Large Risk To Both Fed Mandates = Employment + Inflation.

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In Contrast…The U.S. Services Economy = 79% Of U.S. GDP [7.5x The Economic Impact Of Manufacturing]…

Continues To Run Red Hot…

Which Is Somewhat Troublesome For The Fed’s Employment Mandate…

But Much More Problematic For Their Inflation Mandate…

As The Most Recent CPI Report [See Below] Indicates Year/Year Service Inflation + It’s Sub-Components…

Still Running Well Above The Fed’s Inflation Target Of 2% [See Below…Bottom 4 Line Items].

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Thus…The 10.10.24 CPI Services Data Certainly Help Explain The Post 9.18.24 Price Action In Both The U.S. Dollar + Bond Markets.

Some Price Dynamic Was Likely A “Give-Back” To The Rally Preceding The Well Signaled September Rate Cut…

Though The Magnitude Of The Rate Cut…25 Basis Points vs. 50 Basis Points…Was Widely Considered A Toss-Up.

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However Now = A Full-Fledged Rout In Longer Dated Bonds + A Furious Rally In The U.S. Dollar Has Concurrently Unfolded…

Indicating Market Actors Are Increasingly Un-Convinced By The FOMC’s September Statement =

The Committee Has Gained Greater Confidence That Inflation Is Moving Sustainably Toward 2 Percent.”

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Further + Oddly…Until August ’24’s Jackson Hole Monetary Conference…

Service Inflation Measures Were An Especially Focused Marker For Powell’s Fed…

But It Seems No More…

As Despite Consistently Solid Employment Data [Jobless Claims + JOLTS + Unemployment]…

The Fed Publicly Communicates A Fresh Concern About A Potentially Weakening Labor Market.

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So…For Now…The Fed Has “A Lot Of Egg On It’s Face“…

And Once Again…Markets Question The Fed’s Credibility…

As The Price Action In The Bond + Currency Markets = The Opposite Of What The Fed Intended On 9.18.24…

Which Was/Is =

A Bull Steepening Yield Curve + An Offered Dollar.

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Of Course…Most Recent Comments By Fed Governor’s/Presidents…

Conveniently Backpedal On Future Rate Cut Paths…

Just 1 Month After Codifying Their Interest Rate Forecasts In Their Quarterly Dot Plot.

No Doubt…Central Banking = Humbling + Tough Job…

Requiring A Keen Intellect + Judicious Communication Skills + Market Savvy.

Still…Frequent Flucuations In Most Fed Officials Economic Outlooks…

Whether The Dot Plot Or Public Commentary Distinctly Indicate…

They’ve No Crystal Ball To The Economic Future…

Anymore Than Most Competent + Sophisticated Market Participants.

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Finally…At This Point In Time…The Only Factor In The Fed’s Favor…

After Their Apparent Policy Mistake =

Recently Spiking Intermediate/Long Term Interet Rates + A Firmer Dollar Ought To…

Marginally Weigh On Inflation.

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Contact The Author: [email protected]

BOTH DEMOCRAT + REPUBLICAN FISCAL POLICIES = TRAIN-WRECKS

Headline:
Neither Political Party Has A Scintilla Of Fiscal Discipline.

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Market Structures Are Broadly Defined By The Following =

1. Perfectly Competitive +
2. Oligopoly +
3. Monopoly

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Governments [Federal + State + Local] = Necessary Monopolies.

However…Since Monopolies Are Inherently Inefficient [i.e. No Competition]…

They Ought To Be As Small As Possible + Strictly Managed…

So Their Inefficiencies Are Minimized…

Thereby Enabling The Majority Of Capital To Flow Toward…More Efficient…Private Markets.

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Consider The U.S. Government’s Monopolistic Financial Impact On The U.S. Economy.

Most Recent Data Compiled By The U.S. Government’s Bureau Of Economic Analysis Estimates…

Q2 2024 Non Inflation Adjusted Annualized GDP = $28.652T+

Federal Government’s GDP Contribution = $1.865T Or 6.509%

State + Local Government’s GDP Contribution = $3.134T Or 10.938%

So…Combined = Total Government Contribution To GDP = 8.043T or 17.447% Of GDP.

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Also…According To The August 2024 U.S. Treasury Statement = Fiscal Year 9/24 To Date…

The P&L Of Just The Federal Government…With 1 Fiscal Month Remaining…

Has Generated A Deficit = -$1.891T

Based On Tax Receipts = $4.439T
+
Total Federal Spend = $6.134T.

Yet This Deficit Is Not 2024 Idiosyncratic…

As Federal Deficits For The Prior 11+ Fiscal Years Are Also Significant:

Fiscal 2023 = -$1.695T
Fiscal 2022 = -$1.375T
Fiscal 2021 = -$2.772T
Fiscal 2020 = -$3.132T
Fiscal 2019 = -$.984T
Fiscal 2018 = -$.778T
Fiscal 2017 = -$.665T
Fiscal 2016 = -$.587T
Fiscal 2015 = -$.439T
Fiscal 2014 = -$.483T
Fiscal 2013 = -$.680T

These Annual Deficits Compound + Build A Mountain Of Federal Debt…

Currently $36T…And Counting.

Naturally…The Debt Must Be Serviced…With Interest Payments…

Which…Astonishingly…Are Now The U.S. Federal Government’s Third Largest Budget Expense…

More Than Defense + Health + Approximating Medicare.

Moreover…Interest Payments = Sunk Costs = No Productive Or Residual Value To The Payor.

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Further…Close Examination Of The Above Data Paint A Considerably Bleak Qualitative Picture Of The U.S. Government’s Spending Habits…

That Is…Entitlements + Giveaways = 67.41% Of Federal Spend.

So Basically The U.S. Federal Government Might Just Be…

THE WORLD’S LARGEST CHARITY.

Therefore…It Ought To Be No Surprise That This Gargantuanly Bloated Monopolistic Charity…

Repeatedly Produces Enormous Budget Deficits.

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As For ’24 Fiscal Year GDP Data Cited Above =

The Federal Government’s $6.3T GDP CONTRIBUTION…

Actually Cost U.S. Taxpayers A $1.7T FISCAL DEFICIT

IN JUST 11 MONTHS.

Which = Pretty Darn Inefficient.

Plus…These Fiscal Deficits…Unfortunately…Are A Gift That Keeps Giving…

Or More Accurately…A Gift That Keeps Taking Away…

As The Deficits Contribute To Higher Long Term Interest Rates…

Increasing Borrowing Costs For Almost All U.S. Individuals + Businesses.

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And Although Sovereigns Have Power To Tax…In Order To Fill Budget Gaps…

It Is Ludicrous That All Major Credit Rating Agencies Assign Investment Grade Ratings To Uncle Sam’s Debentures…

Especially Considering The U.S.A.’s Consistent + Un-Interrupted Budget Deficits For Almost 2 Decades…

Well Before + Subsequent To COVID.

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Not Surprisingly…ALL Fiscal Red Ink Was Agreed To And Codified By The Legislative + Executive Branches Of Federal Government.

In Fact On Any TTM Basis Since 2001…The Federal Government Has Posted Fiscal Deficits…At Any Point On The 23 Year Timeline…

ORCHESTRATED BY BOTH DEMOCRATIC + REPUBLICAN…PRESIDENTS + CONGRESSES

Thus…That Both Current U.S. Presidential Candidates Tout Any Fiscal Acuity And/Or Discipline…Is Plain Ridiculous.

Especially Since Both Served At The Highest Levels In The Executive Branch…

And One Also…As A Senator…In The U.S. Congress.

Frankly…It Appears Both Harris + Trump…

With Respect To The Fiscal Dumpster Fires They Both Ignored + Proliferated…

Are Either In Total Fiscal Denial…

Or More Likely…

A Dubious Pair Of Colossal Budgetary/Economic Idiots.

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So…Rather Than Promoting Some Semblance Of Fiscal Austerity + Discipline To The Unsustainable U.S. Fiscal Trajectory…

Both Candidates Proudly Stump To SPEND MORE + MORE + MORE…

Toward Any + Every Special Interest Group…

Selling Their Influence To The Highest Bidder…

Domestic + Foreign…

And Whether Their High Priced Campaign Promises Are Ultimately Fulfilled Or Not = Irrelevant…

As Long As They WIN.

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Furthermore…Both Candidates Cannot Seem To Grasp Onto A Basic Economic Principle…

That Is…Resources Are Finite…Especially Money.

And That There Is No Fiscal “Free Lunch.”

Rather…Fiscal Spending Must Be Massively + Necessarily Reeled In…

No Matter The Political Fall-Out…

Starting + Ending With The Lengthy List Of Entitlement Programs…

Which Can Be Immediately + Properly Addressed With A “Zero Based Budgeting” Approach…

That Neither Candidate …Probably…Can Either Define Or Understand…Let Alone Execute.

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This Is Especially Unfortunate Because The Broad Contemporary Perception That The U.S. Government Ought To…

1. Bail Out +
2. Legislatively Address +
3. Remedy

The Majority Of Business + Society’s Disputes/Issues/Problems =

NOT FISCALLY TENABLE

Whether It Be Harris’ Classic Tax + Spend Democratic Tendency…

Blaming The Wealthy For Their Successes While Commanding The Affluent To Pay Their “Fair Share”…

Even Though The Top 5% Of Earners Already Pay 66% Of The National Individual Tax Total…

Or Trump’s Contorted Nationalistic Economic Policies…That May Be Superficially Appealing [i.e. Tariffs] But Are Destructively Inflationary To The U.S. Economy…

Although His Prior Campaign Mantra Of “Draining The Swamp”…aka Deconstructing The Administrative State…Resonates With Many.

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Meanwhile…The Media Aggressively Fans The Political Battle Winds.

Advocacy Network Anchors Lecturing 24/7…

As To Why The “Other” Candidate Will Be A Political And Societal Disaster + Nightmare…

Regularly Wrapping The “Other” Candidate In A Cloak Of Fear + Uncertainty + Doubt.

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In Stark Contrast…

I Was Not Yet Born When JFK Was Sworn In As The 35th U.S. President…In January 1961.

He Served For Just 2+ Years…Then Was Brutally Assasinated.

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Still…A Singular Message From His Inaugural Address…More Than 63 Years Ago…

Recognizing The Humility + Limitations…Even Of A Powerful U.S. President…

Deserves A Giant Electoral Remembrance…

ASK NOT WHAT YOUR COUNTRY CAN DO FOR YOU…ASK WHAT YOU CAN DO FOR YOUR COUNTRY.”

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Considering The Collective Narcissism + Entitlement Expectations Of A Predominantly Mediocre American Population…

I Suppose Many Have Never Contemplated The Concept Of Actually Doing Anything For The United States…

To Improve The Nation…

Beyond Their Righteous + Selfish Motivations…

Such As…Serving In The U.S. Military…

Or Even Something As Simple As Picking Up Litter While Walking Or Hiking At A Local + State + National Park…

Perhaps…Even Becoming More Physically Fit + Healthy…

To Decrease National Healthcare Costs…

Since 75% Of The U.S. Adult Population Is Either Overweight Or Obese … According To The CDC’s Most Recent Body Mass Index Statistics.

But Maybe…It Ought To Be Considered…

Because The U.S.A. Requires More Courageous High Achievers [Personal + Professional]…From The Ground-Up To Leadership…

In Order To Dramatically Pivot From An Increasingly Bureaucratic And Wilting Status Quo…Fiscal + Societal…

To A Less Suppressive Ethos Strictly Encouraging Legitimate + Paramount Successes…

Where The Expected Standard = Excellence…

Rather Than Just Showing Up + Participating.

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Contact The Author: [email protected]